• Is There A Tightening of the Polls?

October 21, 2008 § Leave a comment

Slightly, but not enough to worry a rational person, yet.

If there were a magazine called Popular Punditry, this week’s issue would be dedicated to figuring out why the polls are tightening. I spent a good few days worring about this myself. But then I saw the above Pollster composite this morning.

And while McCain’s seen a sharp increase since the final debate, Obama’s support hasn’t petered nearly as sharply. This decline, I think, is mostly because those double digit whopper outliers, which most never thought were real, have rolled out of the week’s averages.

FURTHER READING:

For more on this, and why it’s important to look beyond the polls of polls to see where a candidate’s numbers are staying above, see: Marc Ambinder & the Daily Kos’ analysis. Further, Nate Silver calls Drudge out on using Nickelodeon Polling #’s. Silver finds these things and has a better soap box to announce them on than I do, and he beats me to the punch. With the Rays making the WS, this is his season. Finally, I hate to say it, but Tucker Carlson wrote something decent, about the everlasting pessimism of Democrats, and it’s worth a read, possibly.

And then: Electoral College Polling in Mainstream w/ Tossup States Undecided have shown some tightening, with Pollster and RCP narrowing to similar #’s around 286 Obama, 155 McCain, 97 Undecided. Nate Silver of the above, has it at 344 Obama, 194 McCain. I hope Nate’s right.

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