• Is There A Tightening of the Polls?
October 21, 2008 § Leave a comment
Slightly, but not enough to worry a rational person, yet.
If there were a magazine called Popular Punditry, this week’s issue would be dedicated to figuring out why the polls are tightening. I spent a good few days worring about this myself. But then I saw the above Pollster composite this morning.
And while McCain’s seen a sharp increase since the final debate, Obama’s support hasn’t petered nearly as sharply. This decline, I think, is mostly because those double digit whopper outliers, which most never thought were real, have rolled out of the week’s averages.
For more on this, and why it’s important to look beyond the polls of polls to see where a candidate’s numbers are staying above, see: Marc Ambinder & the Daily Kos’ analysis. Further, Nate Silver calls Drudge out on using Nickelodeon Polling #’s. Silver finds these things and has a better soap box to announce them on than I do, and he beats me to the punch. With the Rays making the WS, this is his season. Finally, I hate to say it, but Tucker Carlson wrote something decent, about the everlasting pessimism of Democrats, and it’s worth a read, possibly.
And then: Electoral College Polling in Mainstream w/ Tossup States Undecided have shown some tightening, with Pollster and RCP narrowing to similar #’s around 286 Obama, 155 McCain, 97 Undecided. Nate Silver of the above, has it at 344 Obama, 194 McCain. I hope Nate’s right.